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Brian.oco The Money Pit
Apr 4th, 2008, 11:26 am
While the market mulls over today disappointing jobs number - U.S. businesses shed 80,000 jobs in March, about 30,000 more than analysts had anticipated – I’m still looking for signs of a hangover in one my favorite technology sectors, biotech.

So far, the stock market seems to be hanging in there over the jobs report (down about 20 points in mid-morning trading). But it’s a skittish market and any other negative news could send the Dow plummeting once again. Hopefully not and the weekend can hopefully cool investors down by Monday.

But it’s the biotech market that I’m focusing on today. This year has been a nightmare for stocks, with the S&P 500 down 10.3% for the year. The biotech market however, stung this week by the Schering-Plough Vytorin news, has been an oasis in an otherwise parched desert, portfolio-wise. According to Business Week, the S&P 1500 Biotech Index is now in the top 30% of all subindustry indexes in the S&P 1500 (a ranking of 5 would place it in the top 10%). Year to date through Mar. 28, the S&P Biotechnology index rose 0.8%, vs. that 10.3% decline for the S&P 1500.

This week, I’m looking at stocks that persevere in a week when other biopharm companies are being pulled down by the Vytorin news. One stock that popped out at me is Vertex Pharmaceuticals, a Johnson & Johnson partner that a lot of Wall Street types believe may have the next billion dollar blockbuster drug on its hand (of course, it might not.)

On Monday, Vertex released an abstract of data from a trial testing its anti-hepatitis C virus compound, Telaprevir, that showed the drug is effective in patients who previously failed other therapies. Telaprevir is currently being tested in a phase 2 study called PROVE-3 in patients who have not responded to previous treatments.

According to an analyst report from Zacks Research released today, 26 of 32 hepatitis C patients (81%) treated with Vertex's Telaprevir experienced what is known as a rapid virologic response (RVR), otherwise known as no evidence of the hepatitis C virus after four weeks of treatment. Equally as important, while the number of patients who end up being declared cured of their hepatitis C virus is almost always lower than the RVR rate (Zacks says that RVR rates are an excellent predictor of who will go on to be cured of the disease.)

Says Zacks, “There is little doubt in our mind that Telaprevir has blockbuster sales potential. As these issues ebb and flow, Vertex stock will probably continue to be volatile. The burn rate and high expectations will likely keep the shares from breaking out to the upside until the approval of the drug perhaps in 2011. In the meantime, Vertex’s stock can probably be traded effectively, buying when the name goes below $20 and selling after a strong run-up.”

Now the bad news, beyond the projected 2011 approval timeframe. Vertex is reportedly burning money at an alarming rate, and might need a further cash injection from J & J. Normally, that’s not an issue. But with the “sky is the limit” potential for the drug, Johnson & Johnson may decide to go all in and buy the company outright. If news of such a deal hits the street, watch the panic buying as latecomers bid the stock up into the 30’s or even 40’s.

That’s why on Wall Street, the future is always now.

So take a look at Vertex. A good look. But don’t take too long . . .