As a power user of flash and expert in static sites as well I am in a unique position to answer this. Having spent over 8 years building content driven flash and non-flash sites the answer is hands down flash has nailed it. Too many people are seeing flash as a plug in, instead view it as a browser in itself. As far as takes to long to load I can point you in the direction of non-flash sites that do the same. Flash sites are capable of doing anything non-flash sites can do and then hundreds of times more, the only reason people dont think so is pure ignorance (and quite often fear / stupidity / hate ).

A well coded flash site is scale-able to any size, whats more size in KiloBytes is of no importance. The only difference between the size of a flash and non-flash sites are any multi-media components (images, sounds, movies etc). So the size issue may have been relevant a few years ago when this ground breaking technology was taking off and people did not know how to use it, but it is irrelevant today with so many experts.

finaly comments about versions of flash are ridiculous, what version of Explorer are we at ? What version of html, css, how inane.

The real question is not will flash win (it has already won, some people just cant admit it), but where will it go: hold on.

Flash is going to be the vanguard of online applications (AJAX is for laughs). Full blown online applications such as photoshop, word, whatever you want, is exactly where the future is at, and exactly why adobe purchased the company. Further to this is the fight being taken to Microsoft with flash now being capable of deploying customizable desk top operatining systems, this is why Microsoft is now launching their own fight in this market.
Get with the programme people and leave your prejudices at the door.