If you've been following this blog, you know I'm no nay-sayer on the economy. A realist, yes, but I won't wave pom-poms for a recession like so many others in the media.
That said, I don't think there's any doubt that 2008 will be short of a robust year for technology. And that's okay. Economies have cycles -- always have, always will.
After six years of sustained growth, we're in a dip, no question about that. But it's not a recession yet and, technically, may not be a recession at all. The classic definition of a recession is two straight quarters of negative economic growth. And that hasn't happened yet.
Still, as former General Electric CEO Jack Welch said on TV this week, "we won't have a recession, but it will sure feel like one."
One technology area that could hit a speed bump is the mobile phone sector. In anticipation of a soft year sales-wise, the analytical firm In-Stat says that revenue for mobile business applications will continue to be robust, but perhaps not robust enough to meet the optimistic forecasts of many mobile industry experts.
Noting that mobile business application growth was near the 50% mark between 2006 and 2007, the market research firm said its surveys reveal that the growth will likely slow to 44% from 2007 to 2008.
The discrepancy between the hoped-for growth number and the actual growth figures is explained by decision-makers expecting more business than what they can actually implement, In-Stat suggested.
"As business users approach saturation for horizontal mobile data applications, most of the growth potential remains for vertical market applications," said In-Stat analyst Bill Hughes in a statement. "These require more planning and time to implement. The result is that many within the wireless industry may have overoptimistic forecasts."
In-Stat's research also found that mobile data application penetration among companies increased to 94% from 75% in 2007 while smartphone use increased 34% between 2006 and 2007. That's good news - there is plenty of room for higher sales when companies exhale and start spending big money again (technically, they really haven't stopped, but I'm betting they will)
In-Stat also said that horizontal applications including e-mail, wireless Internet access, wireless instant messaging and persona information management (PIM) represent the highest penetration among business users because they are easy to implement.
Says the firm "While the mobile enterprise market is expected to undergo strong growth in the next few years, its growth rates will still lag those of mobile business data growth."
So if the mobile industry winds up taking a breather this year, and sales do tail off, look for it to resume its upward spike when the economy regains its vibrancy -- likely during the 2nd half of this year.