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Have you guys heard about the future predictions of the real estate market? I've heard rumors that there could be a crash sometime in the future. Then I heard them talking about it on the news the other day. Even Greenspan is predicting a bubble in the market.

What do you people think? Will it happen or is it just fiction?

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Last Post by Ancient Dragon
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I've been waiting for the market to crash for almost a decade now so I can afford to buy a house...

While house prices aren't rising as sharply as they used to a few years ago (and in some categories even seem to be in a very slow decline) I don't see a crash developing.
For that to happen the economy would have to collapse so hard that the majority of people who now own property will be forced to sell it with few people capable of paying the current high prices. If that happens I doubt I'll be in a position to even pay the lower prices that will result so I still won't benefit.

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I've heard so many different things. Some think the market will have a 15-25% gain over the next 5 years, and some think it will crash. The way things are right now, I would go with the gain over five years. I've seen houses in my neighborhood go for about 100-200 more thousand than they bought it right now. Do you know how or why people are predicting a crash?

I found this link that gives the same view point as you:

http://www.legalwiz.com/articles/bubble-rightframe.htm

I think it would be hard for the real estate market to plumit. With the population growing like it is, the market is really hot right now, and it would'nt make sense for it to burst.

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Like I stated, the only reason I can see it bust is if a LOT of people at once get forced to sell for some reason (most likely because they can't afford to pay skyhigh mortgages because they all at the same time loose their jobs and the mortgage companies are at that precise moment looking for cash infusions and demand instant payments) while at the same time there's few people looking for houses (because they can't afford to buy most likely or are wary to because their own job situation is insecure).
Something like that happened on a small scale a few years ago but it was at the time not enough to cause prices to drop (it did cause a marked reduction in the rate at which prices were increasing though).
At this time (at least in this country) there's a surplus of midrange houses combined with a shortage of lowend and highend houses. This causes houses in the €220-300.000 range to be slowly dropping in price (but no more than a few tenths of a percent a year) for the first time in decades (house prices here are astronomical as it is, that price gets you a 100sq.m. house with maybe a small garden and if you're lucky a carport or reserved parking spot on the road).

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I believe as the economy suffers set backs by various natural disasters and affairs abroad there will be a crisis of persons who will not be able to afford these home loans that are being given away at alarming rates with many of the transactions being fraudulently drawn up to give the appearance the the buyers really can afford these homes but in all actuality do not have the resources to support their means. I see a point where the foreclosure markets will rise sharply in about 3-5 years and capital market investors loose unprecedented amounts of money on loans that aren't worth the paper they are drawn up on. The resulting foreclosure markets will therefore affect property values in most neighborhoods that will drive the appraised values down on homes thus causing loans to go upside down in value vs principal. Don't mind me guys and gals, I am a mortgage broker just having fun while the getting is good lol.

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While natural events like hurricanes may cause rapid depreciation in some areas, it may yield sharp increase in prices in areas not affected by such events as people try to get away from the disaster prone areas to the proverbial high ground.
Those people will possibly want to give whatever is asked for property, and close out on mortgages they can only barely afford to pay on.

In the medium to long term this could cause them to have to sell at a loss compared to the then-current prices, but by then the market will have likely caused prices to increase enough that they're still selling at a higher price than what they themselves initially paid.

That's the situation as it was at the end of the .com boom when many people in IT lost their jobs and their houses and migrations started to areas where there still were jobs available.

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Well, as long as the population of this dirtball keeps going up it will only go up as well.
Living space will get ever more expensive, made even worse by an ever larger area needed for agriculture and transport.

I fear Asimov's vision of his Caves of Steel may come true, massive underground cities where people live in tiny apartments without any amenities (everything from kitchens to toilets to bathrooms being communal), and the food supply being made up almost exclusively of industrially produced yeast and moulds flavoured to make it taste somewhat like vegetables, fruit, and meat.

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I fear Asimov's vision of his Caves of Steel may come true, massive underground cities where people live in tiny apartments without any amenities (everything from kitchens to toilets to bathrooms being communal), and the food supply being made up almost exclusively of industrially produced yeast and moulds flavoured to make it taste somewhat like vegetables, fruit, and meat.

Sounds like something that will happen, sadly. :sad:

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It may already be starting with city planners in Japan and elsewhere planning massive buildings with not just housing but shops, offices, and everything else for tens of thousands of occupants.
Not yet completely self contained, these are the first step towards cities in a building where the occupants never have to leave the building they're born in if they don't want to (in Asimov's vision/nightmare they were legally banned from doing so without special permission as well as mentally incapable).

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One thing is certain, end-of-the-world will certainly cause a crash in the real estate market, so will nuclear war. And prices in New Orleans (USA) plummeted after last year's hurricanes.

That's the situation as it was at the end of the .com boom when many people in IT lost their jobs and their houses and migrations started to areas where there still were jobs available.

That's one reason I am happy that I live in the mid-west -- we didn't feel the affects of that, IT jobs here are still pretty good. The wages are not as high as the west coast, but neither are the cost-of-living so it doesn't really matter that I don't make a million dollars an hour.

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