Steve Jobs of Apple has declared that Microsoft Windows is in terminal decline. No really, that's what he's said at the All Things Digital conference in LA. And he's had backing from people like Dreamworks, who now access the Internet through an iPad.
OK, we'll take it as read that we understand there's a lot of vested interest going on here. Jobs would love to see Windows crash and burn, and he's likely to be having a load of fun watching as iPad sells 2m units.
But...Windows in decline? Really? To find out whether that's actually going to happen we need to look beyond the headline grandstanding. Here's a link to Wikipedia and some data on who's using which operating system. You'll notice straight away that Apple has 5.8% of the desktop market compared to Microsoft's 90+%.
Now, before we all start giggling, this is actually quite a result for Apple. Microsoft's figure is divided among many different hardware sellers. Apple's is a single company with a massive chunk of the market. It's doing unbelievably well.
But it's still a minority. For Jobs' claim to be correct, people will have to abandon surfing the Internet from their desktops wholesale. 90% isn't going to go anywhere fast - and the initial flurry over the iPad is bound to die down sometime.
I can see Apple continuing to do well and profitably for a long time. Windows declining terminally is another issue entirely, though: I can't see that happening for at least a generation.
