Crystal Ball Sunday #1: Corporate Conversion to Linux

This is the first post in my new series called Crystal Ball Sunday. These Sunday posts are where I take out my Linux, and related technology, crystal ball and give you my predictions for the coming months. This week I am focusing on corporate conversion to Linux.

I foresee companies starting to take a serious look at Linux for their corporate server and desktop infrastructures. As our economy slides quietly into recession, corporate check writers are going to engage to CIOs and technical managers to find ways to lower costs for power, cooling, software, and hardware. Turning to Linux will be a natural part of that mission.

Linux will gain ground in the File Server, Application Server, and Mail Server spaces as costlier solutions fade in favor of those offering more bang for the buck. In turn, those IT staff members with diverse skills will continue to find gainful employment over those who are Operating System “specialists.”

Virtualization will also play a large role in this cost-lowering shift. VMware, VirtualBox, Xen, KVM, Qemu, and other solutions will lose their niche status to become standard, mainstream staples in server rooms and data centers alike. Linux is the clear choice as a virtual host Operating System—regardless of guest Operating System—due to its stability and low operating cost.

Linux-based thin client and terminal server computing will also be thrust into a new era of interest. Traditional desktop and laptop computers hosting their own ever-bloating, high-maintenance Operating Systems will fall to the more agile remote boot or minimal Operating System desktop and laptop computers that can leverage older and even outdated hardware. Most, if not all, computing and application storage and management will be done on a remote server system.

Necessity breeds innovation and creativity. In stressful economic times, an underdog like Linux will get a second look and perhaps gain the relevance and utility it deserves.

[jwenting]

Nope, none of the above.
Not only are you woefully behind the times in places, in other places you completely miss the mark.

Companies will NOT move to Linux desktops in large numbers. The maintenance and training cost is simply way too high and the lost productivity due to the poor quality and performance of Linux desktop systems too great a price to pay.

And in the server room there are already a lot of Unix based servers, with those companies not using them yet in the most part doing so for very good reasons so there's no reason for them to switch to Linux now or possibly ever.

But nothing you "predict" is new. We've been hearing it regularly enough you can set your clock by it for about a decade now that for whatever reason companies would "real soon now" make the "move to Linux" in droves, killing Microsoft and all commercial off the shelf software in one fell swoop.

[khess]

I don't usually respond to responses but here I have to make an exception. No, I am not behind the times, I am, in fact, with the times. The time is now right for all good people to come to the aid of their pocketbooks and make the switch to Linux.

Linux Desktop performance is fine now...in the past, to which you refer, I would have agreed, but it is you who are mistaken--not me.

There are many companies and countries converting by the thousands to Linux in the Data Center and on the Desktop. The time is now right for the US to follow in this path instead of being held for ransom by Microsoft and the ever-bloating desktop and the never-ending hardware upgrades for every new OS that comes out.

Now, having said that, I actually like XP. It is the best OS ever produced by Microsoft and they should keep it and improve on it. But, yes, the time is coming when our own folk will see the light and convert...and that time is soon my friend...very soon.

[hendrawan]

I'm not so into running a critical data system using an open source technology. It's so risky don't you think? With so many people researching the bug and found new bugs each minutes.

[khess]

If you run sendmail, you're running an open source technology--same with DNS (BIND), same with TCP/IP.
Bugs and fixes are found because it is open source and that's a good thing...the software keeps getting improved. OTOH, proprietary systems have as many flaws but some of the "improvements" are actually worse than the original problem.