The AI 'arms race' between China and the U.S. is heating up. Forget nuclear weapons, the real power now lies in microchips that can outsmart entire nations at any game and predict their next move. This arms race is part of a larger cold war backdrop, which includes massive investments into AI research and trade restrictions aimed at limiting the adversary’s access to semiconductors. The endgame? An AGI with the promise—or threat—of radically reshaping the world. But don’t worry—like any good arms race, this one has its benefits too.
The Quest for the Double-Edged Sword of AGI
AGI could give unimaginable power to those who control it—provided they can. Imagine an AI system that could outperform us in every aspect, from revolutionizing healthcare with personalized treatments, to tackling climate change by designing supercharged renewable energy solutions. Basically, an AGI could redefine society and make every utopian or dystopian fantasy come true.
However, while AGI has the potential to solve some of humanity's biggest problems, the risks can't be ignored. A poorly designed or inadequately controlled system could result in catastrophic outcomes. Consider a scenario where automated drones make life-or-death decisions, or where entire cities lose power because an AGI chose to divert resources for an unknown reason. And then there's the more terrifying existential risk: an AGI that decides humanity is the problem and takes steps to 'optimize' us out of existence. It's a high-stakes game that forces us to balance unparalleled promise against ethical concerns and existential dangers.
But while we're busy debating the ethics of AGI, the clock is ticking. The reason? Something called the 'first-mover advantage.' Basically, whoever gets to AGI first could set the rules of the game—in business, politics, warfare, you name it. So, it's no surprise that countries are going all-in on this bet. Most notably, China. According to Newsweek, Chinese officials are quite clear about wanting to be first in line for AGI. They're throwing serious money and policy behind it, making this race even more intense. The stakes couldn't be higher, and everyone's hustling to get there first.
China Steps Up the Game by Reverse-Engineering the Human Brain
With unprecedented investments into research and a one-million-square-foot AI innovation park in Beijing set to open by 2024, China is really ramping up the game in the race for AGI. Chairman Xi Jinping took the lead by making AGI a national priority and repeatedly emphasizing the importance of AI research. On a similar note, leading Chinese AI scientist Zhu Songchun recently dubbed AGI the 'atomic bomb' of the information field. The message is clear: China wants the lead role in AI's next big act.
Have you seen the headlines about China's so-called 'artificial brain'? More precisely, the article published by Newsweek describes bionic retina computing, which is meant to help running smart cities. We're talking about AI that recognizes faces, manages traffic, and predicts fights while potential participants are still gathering. It's cutting-edge urban management, as seen in 1984. But China’s ambitions stretch far beyond controlling smart cities. The research scene is buzzing, as evidenced by the thousands of scientific papers flooding academic journals every year. The research spans an impressive range of topics: from pattern recognition and sensemaking, to perception and brain-inspired AI. It actually looks like Chinese researchers are aiming to find out how the brain works and aim to reverse-engineer it.
According to Maximilian Riesenhuber, one of the authors of a comprehensive study by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology that analyzed 850 Chinese papers on AI, China’s recent ambitions in neuroscience might indeed be linked to the nation’s quest for AGI. “A surefire way to get to real intelligence is to reverse engineer the human brain, which is the only intelligent system that we know of,” he said to Newsweek.
The Georgetown experts aren't just detailing China's bold AGI agenda, they're also sounding the alarm for U.S. policymakers. Their wake-up call centers on the first-mover advantage. But they caution that there's a Catch-22. While the West is still sketching out the ethics, it risks falling behind. Putting too much focus on one-sided rules or trust-based agreements could see the U.S. losing ground in the high-stakes race for AGI.
What's Uncle Sam Up To?
Of course, it takes at least two for a prolific arms race. The U.S. is far from idle, with military-backed AI projects spanning years. But most AI work comes from Silicon Valley, where the focus currently seems more on polishing algorithms to be inoffensive than on making them smarter. Moreover, calls for pausing or restricting AI development have intensified throughout the year. Critics argue that slowing down research could hand China a free pass to dominate the global AI landscape.
President Biden, in a speech on AI delivered last July, highlighted the coming tech revolution, stating we'll see more change in the next decade than in the past 50 years. Although he highlights the transformative power of AI, he hasn't singled out China as a rival. At a recent UN gathering, Biden further stressed the need to use AI for good and protect us against its risks. This ethical stance is a contrast to the more goal-oriented approach we're seeing from China. Angela Zhang, professor of law at Hong Kong University, adds weight to this observation. She suggests that ethical considerations are unlikely to dominate China's future AI regulation, indicating a significant divergence in priorities between the two nations.
Facing AI’s Dr. Strangelove Moment
Both the U.S. and China have considerable stakes in the AGI race. And yes, things could go horribly wrong. Just like the deranged general in Dr. Strangelove, a rogue AGI (possibly, but not necessarily controlled by a fluoride-phobic madman) could command entire nuclear arsenals against each other. In such a scenario, a cold war would seem like a hot summer day compared to the chill of a nuclear winter.
However, let’s consider the silver linings. History shows that intense rivalry can also fuel progress. The Cold War, for example, pushed us to the moon, gave us GPS, and helped create the Internet. So, as the U.S. and China sprint in the race for AGI, it's worth thinking about the potential benefits that could come from this contest. Instead of nuclear destruction or AGI-induced slavery, perhaps we'll see revolutionary advances that improve everyone's lives.
Either way, the race is on. It's not a matter of if AGI will be developed, but when and by whom. Maybe we should spend less time worrying and more time exploring ways to maximize the benefits of this competition.