Oracle, Research and Motion and Palm are all releasing earnings statements today, and that should pick up momentum in what has been a fairly dormant technology trading week. The web site thinks the earnings news means opportunity in two technology-heavy exchange-traded funds (ETFs); Technology Select Sector (SPDR ETF XLK); and the ProShares Ultra Technology ETF, ROM. Both ETF’s have more tech company assets than most tech indexes, and has a two-to-one weighting over the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index. Could be a quick score, there.
Elsewhere, trading is light as the Christmas-New Years season looms and traders and investors look to close down their books and go home for the holidays. Already we are starting to see some of those ubiquitous “predictions for the new year” columns and CNBC today has a good one. In it, David Karsbol, an analyst at Saxo Bank, offers his “10 Outrageous Predictions for 2009”. I particularly like #’s 2 and 3 . . .
2. Crude Oil to $25 - The ongoing economic crisis will further dent oil demand throughout next year, sending the price ever closer to $25 a barrel, Saxo Bank said. OPEC production cuts will be hampered by disagreement and fail to stem the slide, it added.
3. S&P 500 to 500 - The S&P 500 will fall to 500 points in 2009 as slowing corporate earnings will drag on the U.S. index, according to Saxo Bank. Earnings will slow because of a continued consumer recession, lead by the credit shortage. An increase in corporate funding costs, falls in house prices and a slowdown in investing programs will also add to the weakness, the report said.
Read the whole list at: http://www.cnbc.com/id/28277894
Also good viewing at TechTicker.com, where Charles Schwab analyst Liz Ann Sonders thinks we hit a stock market bottom on November 20. “Nobody really knows,” she admits, “but many of the signs of a bottom have been evident in recent weeks.”
Sonders makes her case with three points . . .
-- Cash levels in 401(k) accounts reached an all-time high in October, a sign investor sentiment hit extremely bearish levels, a contrarian indicator.
-- As of November 2008, the 10-year return for the S&P 500 matched its worst performance in history. Because of mean reversion, bad (or, in this case, awful) 10-year returns typically lead to positive 10-year returns going forward. (She better hope Karsbol is wrong).
-- Treasury yields falling to zero — and negative for short periods — is a sign of panic among investors who would rather lock in a quantifiable loss vs. risk putting money to work in "riskier" assets.
"Treasuries has truly been the only asset class that's saved you," Sonders tells Tech Ticker. "That may continue for a while but I'm safe in saying I guarantee it's not going to last forever. At some point investors are going to want to take some risk in order to get some semblance of a return."