90% of the game on Wall Street is picking stocks that will rise before they actually do.
It's not easy. If everyone could do that, then everyone would be doing that.
But stock-picking is not easy. It's akin to shooting an arrow at a moving target that you can't even see yet. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky used to say that his greatness as a hockey player came not from going where the puck is, but where it was going to be.
Same idea with stock investing. You have to anticipate where the winners will be, then go there.
One way to do that is to check what the big products might be six months from now. For example, a new study from ABI Research says that more than 100 million handsets with touch screens will be shipped in 2008. ABI also says that increasing numbers of handsets with touch screens have started to appear in the market, including the Apple iPhone, the LG Prada, the HTC Touch, and the Ultra-Smart F700 from Samsung, as well as the P990, M600, and W950 handsets from Sony Ericsson. It also says that touch screens and touch pads are gaining popularity and becoming more common on handsets, while helping to make the handsets more intuitive, pleasant, and efficient to use.
That tells investors the market for handheld devices is markedly bullish, especially compared to the market for, say, personal computers, which hit the saturation point years ago.
Why handsets? Analysts say they're more productive, more powerful, and easier to use.
According to ABI Research industry analyst Shailendra Pandey, “Handsets with intuitive user interfaces allow quick and easy access to various applications and services and can result in higher ARPUs for mobile operators by generating greater usage of their value-added services. Mobile operators are therefore keen to promote and market handsets with good UI on their networks.” In the past, many smartphones and high-end handsets with a good number of attractive features have been commercial failures, simply because their user interfaces have been too complex and difficult for convenient use.
ABI Research expects that more than 500 million handsets shipped in 2012 will sport a touch-based user interface. “A good handset UI is important not just to meet and exceed users’ expectations,” notes Pandey, “but also to support fast and flexible design changes, operator customizations, and late software distribution, while maintaining low demands on the hardware.”
Pandey makes a good point, even if she does engage in too much tech-speak. If handheld devices allow people to do multiple tasks, like take calls, send emails, download pictures, find directions, and surf the web - - all on one unit, then that is a product that will surely be in demand -- now and six months from now.