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Brian.oco 0 Posting Whiz

Monday is upon us, and thoughts on Wall Street turn away from turkey and football to key companies issuing quarterly earnigns statements this week.

It's a particularly crucial period for computer makers, video game companies, digital camera companies - in short - - any company with a potential gift to be stashed away under the Christmas tree this year.

Yesterday I gave you some fresh numbers on Black Friday and the holiday shopping season. Today I have some more tid bits -- followed by a rosier-than-expected earnings scenario from one of the world's top computer makers.

Again, the numbers point to a more bullish holiday shopping season. According to , Black Friday accounted for $8.96 billion in sales last year, while the entire Thanksgiving weekend accounted for $18.1 billion. The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates that Thanksgiving weekend usually accounts for 10% of holiday sales. Zacks.com senior retail analyst, Robert Plaza, predicts Black Friday sales this year should be in a range of $9.23 to $9.27 billion and total Thanksgiving weekend sales should total between $18.6 and $18.73 billion.

One company that could really benefit from increased holiday consumer spending is Dell Computers. According to Charles Rotblut, senior market analyst for Zacks.com., Dell should come up big this week when it reports earnings.

"Internal changes at Dell have allowed the company to top expectations for four consecutive quarters," says Rotblut. "One of the 22 covering brokerage analysts believe the computer maker can extend the streak to five and raised his forecast to 37 cents per share, three cents above the consensus forecast."

Dell is scheduled to report on Thursday, Nov 29, after the close of trading.

Other key technology companies like Analog Devices and high-end computer, printer, and tech products supplier Staples Inc. are reporting this week, as well.

It should be an interesting week for the technology market, one that could provide a revealing glimpse into 2008.

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As observed, this Dell report is best treated as a targeted data point on holiday PC demand rather than a full verdict on the company. The most useful contribution here is a short, practical checklist that helps separate transient, seasonally driven results from signs of a durable change in demand or profitability.

Key items to check in the release and conference call:

  • revenue split by consumer, commercial and services (which side of the business is driving growth);
  • unit shipments versus average selling price (ASPs) and whether margin moves are volume- or mix-driven;
  • gross-margin drivers called out by management (component costs, promotions, service mix);
  • channel inventories and promotional activity (language like “channel destocking” is important);
  • forward guidance and the tone of the management commentary (specifics matter more than adjectives);
  • cash-flow, buybacks, and any one-time accounting items that explain EPS beats or misses.

How to read common outcomes: an EPS beat tied to margin expansion from durable cost improvements or stronger enterprise spending is more credible than a beat produced by aggressive promotional pricing or a one-time tax/asset gain. Upward guidance is a stronger signal if it’s accompanied by conservative inventory commentary; conversely, raised promotional activity or higher returns warns that reported unit growth may be fleeting.

Practical cautions: reconcile GAAP vs non-GAAP adjustments, watch for changes in share count from buybacks that can mask organic EPS trends, and use the transcript to capture precise numeric guidance (not just paraphrase). For anyone reviewing this thread later, the raw 10-Q/10-K and the earnings transcript provide the definitive numbers and context when assessing whether the quarter reflects genuine momentum or just seasonal noise.

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