More Dour Predictions for '09, Best Buy to Sell iPhones

Brian.oco 0 311 Views

Tech talk has more predictions for 2009, and the news continues to be grim. Economist Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., was on the show this morning with a laundry list of dark projections for the economy and the stock market. Specifically, Shilling says the recession will last throughout 2009 and he expects the S&P 500 to hit 600 in 2009.

Shilling also tells Tech Ticker that a recovery isn't likely until 2010, but he is bullish on the dollar and cautiously optimistic about high-grade corporate debt, but doesn't see much to be hopeful about from the long side in 2009. He says “we have a lot of downside to go and that the recession won’t end at nine o’clock in the morning on June 30, like most people are saying.”

He also sees “no sign of bottoming out in the housing market, and that if you want to sell your home, do it yesterday.” He says stay out of stocks and to buy high-grade bonds. Shilling adds that it’s too early to buy the tech sector – that should wait until 2010.

A pretty sober assessment, especially about tech stocks. After all, how much lower can they go?

One potential bright spot for consumers; Best Buy is jumping into the iPhone market, selling refurbished Apple iPhone 3G models at a $50 discount. According to a Reuters dispatch this morning, the lower prices of $149 for the 8GB iPhone (normally $199) and $249 for the 16GB iPhone (normally $299)--with a two-year service contract with AT&T contract--apply to devices that were returned to the store within 30 days of their initial purchase.

The move undercuts the prices that Wal-Mart began selling the iPhones for on January 1. Wal-Mart has been selling the 8GB device for $197 and the 16GB device for $297. Expect those prices to come down, Wal-Mart being Wal-Mart.

A note from yesterday’s blog on Twitter. Aside from CNN anchor Rick Sanchez’s hacking, which featured a message from Sanchez that he was high on crack and wouldn’t be making it to work today, other big time personalities have suffered at the hands of Twitter hackers. That list includes, Brittany Spears, Fox News personality Bill O’Reilly, and President-elect Barack Obama (not necessarily in that order).

Dani AI

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This thread (started by ) captures the tone in early 2009: lots of dire forecasts and rapid retail moves around smartphones. A brief retrospective is helpful for anyone who lands here years later and wants clarity on what actually happened and what to watch for when buying discounted or returned phones.

Official chronology: the U.S. recession that began in late 2007 is now dated as having reached its trough in June 2009; the market, however, hit its cyclical low in early March 2009 and then staged a significant recovery through the rest of the year. (nber.org)

What that means for forecasts: many very bearish calls made early in 2009 missed the timing or magnitude of the rebound — markets can and did reverse sharply after the March lows. That pattern is worth remembering whenever someone predicts an immediate, prolonged downside: macro troughs are declared retrospectively, and markets often lead the data.

Retail/refurbished phones — practical note. In-market discounting and return/resale of iPhones were common, but Apple did not begin offering certified refurbished iPhones through its own refurbished storefront until years later; today Apple’s certified-refurbished program carries a one‑year warranty and full testing. If researching older posts about “cheap iPhones,” prefer Apple Certified Refurbished or reputable resellers, and insist on warranty/return details. (macrumors.com)

Quick buying checklist for refurbished/discounted phones (short, practical): insist on proof of purchase and a return window; verify IMEI/serial (dial *#06#) and that Activation Lock/Find My is disabled in person; confirm carrier lock status and battery/physical condition; prefer Apple-certified units or resellers that offer at least a 90‑day warranty. For account security context, major social-network account takeovers in that era helped push platforms to add stronger login verification (Twitter introduced login verification in 2013), so enabling two‑factor authentication remains essential. (support.apple.com)

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