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I am in the process of developing a website that is a large, specific type video database combined with a functional social network. Sites offering similar content in different media format average 78,000 pages per day, 29000 visits per day, and 16,000 unique hosts per day. My site is innovative in its market and I am currently in the process of attempting to forecast revenues based on CPM advertising. Is there a base CPM rate that individuals use for forecasting purposes? Also, once the site is running and generating traffic, can I find advertising without having to use a ValueClick or Tribal Fusion type organization? Will advertisers come to me if the site is generating desirable audiences?

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Practical, publisher-focused playbook that builds on points from , , and — focused on forecasting CPM revenue for a video-first social site and creating a path from network demand to direct-sold deals.

Start with an eCPM-based forecast (don’t confuse advertiser CPM with publisher eCPM). Break the model into measurable pieces: monthly pageviews, ad slots per page (or video ad breaks), expected fill rate, and an eCPM per format (display / native / in‑stream video). Translate those into revenue with a simple formula:

monthly_impressions = pageviews_per_month * ads_per_page
filled_impressions  = monthly_impressions * fill_rate
monthly_revenue     = (filled_impressions / 1000) * eCPM

Use separate eCPMs for video vs. standard display and run short A/B price tests to replace guesses with real numbers. (epom.com)

Monetization channels to model and when to push each:

  • open exchange for scale, header‑bidding to raise baseline yield, and a staged move toward PMPs / programmatic guaranteed and direct sponsorships for premium CPMs; curated/private deals and guaranteed buys typically command materially higher prices than undifferentiated open-auction inventory. Implement header bidding (or a server-side solution) to introduce competition before selling directly. (docs.prebid.org)

Operational checklist to make direct sales realistic:

  • assemble an audience deck (unique users, geography, device split, watch time, completion rates, engagement), enable industry transparency (ads.txt / sellers.json), integrate third‑party viewability/IVT measurement, and expose PMP / deal IDs via the ad server so buyers can transact programmatically. Advertisers respond to clear, verifiable metrics — that is the lever for moving away from commodity network rates. (iabtechlab.com)

Practical cautions: separate forecasts by format, be conservative on fill rate and initial eCPM, and treat early direct deals as relationship-building (reporting, make‑goods and clear measurement will drive renewals).

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Member Avatar for cmills83

CPM is hard to estimate without a specific target market bc it varies a lot. I usually estimate about a 14% click through rate for my ads though. If you build a good site that ranks well advertisers will find you. Companies will in most cases contact you if you build a good site that ranks well, hasn't happened to me yet but people I know.

Member Avatar for Dani

CPM rates are usually between $2 and $200. :) A 14% CTR is extraordinarily high, but it all depends upon the type of content on the page and how sticky the site is.

Member Avatar for mohanrobin

I am in the process of developing a website that is a large, specific type video database combined with a functional social network. Sites offering similar content in different media format average 78,000 pages per day, 29000 visits per day, and 16,000 unique hosts per day. My site is innovative in its market and I am currently in the process of attempting to forecast revenues based on CPM advertising. Is there a base CPM rate that individuals use for forecasting purposes? Also, once the site is running and generating traffic, can I find advertising without having to use a ValueClick or Tribal Fusion type organization? Will advertisers come to me if the site is generating desirable audiences?

hi iam mohan.you can find advertising without having to use a ValueClick or Tribal Fusion type organization.advertisers will come to you if the site is generating desirable audiences.

Member Avatar for dannymo2

There are several APIs out there that help you learn your user demographics and command higher CPM from direct selling of advertisements.

Member Avatar for wilson2

Fastclick could be one of the better option.

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